Prediction model of effective studies at the Academy of criminalistics and police studies

Abstract

The paper deals with the connection between the input characteristics of students of the Academy of Criminalistics and Police Studies in Belgrade related to the acquired and inherited values and effective studying. Data collection was performed using the questionnaire technique on a sample of 120 students and the logic regression method. The questionnaire comprised 11 closed questions, 10 relating to predictor variables (gender, high school, success in high school, place in which it was finished, going in for sport, respondent's family and financial situation, whether a member of the family is employed by the Ministry of Interior and the course of studies), and one relating to the criterion variable (studying without repeating years). The results of logic regression showed that the overall model explains between 40.4% and 55.7% of variance in the status of effective studying, and it correctly classified 83.6% of cases. Only five predictor variables provided a unique statistically significant contribution to the model. The paper proved that if a student had a specific set of inherited and acquired characteristics, probability that he/she would study effectively is significantly increased. The paper proved that higher police education institutions should pay attention to the inherited and acquired characteristics at the entrance examination. Unlike any previous research, the paper deals with desired characteristics modeling implying that the candidate has increased chances to study effectively.

Rad odgovara na pitanje da li se na osnovu ulaznih karakteristika studenata Akademije, koje se odnose na stečene i nasleđene vrednosti, može predvideti njihova efektivnost tokom studiranja. Odgovor na postavljeno pitanje potražen je realizacijom istraživanja sa studentima Kriminalističko-policijske akademije. Pri obradi prikupljenih podataka iskorišćena je logička regresija koja omogućava ispitivanje modela za predikciju kategorijskih ishoda (efektivno studira ili ne). Ispitivani model se sastojao od 10 prediktorskih varijabli (pol ispitanika, vrsta srednje škole koju je ispitanik završio, uspeh ispitanika u srednjoj školi, statistički region u kome je ispitanik završio srednju školu, da li se ispitanik bavi sportom, porodična situacija ispitanika, materijalna situacija ispitanika, da li je neki od ispitanikovih bližih članova porodice zaposlen u MUP-u i vrsta studija koju ispitanik pohađa). Rezultati logičke regresije pokazali su da model u celini objašnjava između 40.4% i 55.7% varijanse u statusu efektivnog studiranja i tačno klasifikuje 83.6% slučajeva. Samo pet prediktorskih varijabli dale su jedinstven statistički značajan doprinos modelu (muški pol, završena gimnazija, završena srednja škola prirodnih nauka, bavljenje sportom i lošiji materijalni status). U skladu sa tim rezultatima, u radu je dokazano da ukoliko student ima specifičan set nasleđenih i stečenih karakteristika vezanih za statistički značajne prediktorske varijable, uveliko se povećava verovatnoća da će efektivno studirati na Kriminalističko-policijskoj akademiji.