Analysis of spatial and temporal distribution of volcanic eruptions

Abstract

Natural disasters of all kinds (meteorological, hydrological, geophysical, climatological and biological) are increasingly becoming part of everyday life of modern human. The consequences are often devastating, to the life, health and property of people, as well to the security of states and the entire international regions. In this regard, we noted the need for a comprehensive investigation of the phenomenology of natural disasters. In addition, it is particularly important to pay attention to the different factors that might correlate with each other to indicate more dubious and more original facts about their characteristics. However, as the issue of natural disasters is very wide, the subject of this paper will be forms, consequences, temporal and spatial distribution of volcanic eruptions, while analysis of other disasters will be the subject of our future research. In relation to the total number of natural disasters in the period, which amounted to 25.552, geophysical disasters are in the third place according to its frequency - 11,89%. In the first place are hydrological disasters - 37,40%, and the last are biological ones - 11,04%. Volcanic eruptions as geophysical disasters, every day increasingly jeopardize the safety of people and their property. As such, they are beginning to attract more attention of researchers in the field of emergency situations who want to better understand it. Bearing in mind that this is a mass phenomenon, which consists of multiple units, most preferred scientific method for drawing conclusions about the volcanic eruptions is general scientific statistical method. Guided by this fact, the subject of this paper is a descriptive statistical analysis of spatial and temporal distribution of volcanic eruptions in the period from 1900 to 2013 at the global level. In addition, the statistical study was conducted in such a way that in the first step raw (unprocessed) data were taken in 'Excel' file form from the international database on disasters (CRED) in Brussels, which were then analyzed in the statistical SPSS data processing. Within the temporal analysis, the distribution of the total number and effects of volcanic eruptions was examined on an annual, monthly and daily basis, with a special focus on the top 5 years by the number of various effects (killed, injured, affected, homeless). On the same principle, within the spatial distribution, total number and the consequences of volcanic eruptions were analyzed by continents and countries, with special emphasis on the top five states in terms of total number and variety of consequences.

Vulkanske erupcije kao geofizičke katastrofe, svakim danom sve više ugrožavaju bezbednost ljudi i njihove imovine. Kao takve, počinju sve više privlačiti pažnju istraživača iz oblasti vanrednih situacija koji ih žele bolje spoznati. Imajući u vidu da se radi o masovnoj pojavi koja se sastoji iz mnoštva jedinica, najpreporučljiviji naučni metod za donošenje zaključaka o vulkanskim erupcijama jeste statistička metoda. Rukovodeći se tom činjenicom, predmet rada je deskriptivna statistička analiza geoprostorne i vremenske distribucije vulkanskih erupcija u svetu, tokom perioda 1900-2013. godina. Pri tome, samo statističko istraživanje je sprovedeno na taj način što su u prvom koraku preuzeti neobrađeni podaci u vidu ,,Excel' fajla iz međunarodne baze podataka o katastrofama (CRED) u Briselu, a zatim su analizirani u programu za statističku obradu podataka SPSS. U okviru vremenske analize razmatrana je distribucija ukupnog broja i posledica vulkanskih erupcija na godišnjem, mesečnom i dnevnom nivou, sa posebnim osvrtom na pet najznačajnijih godina prema broju različitih posledica (poginuli, povređeni, pogođeni, bez doma). Na istom principu, u okviru geoprostorne distribucije analiziran je ukupan broj i posledice vulkanskih erupcija po kontinentima i državama, sa posebnim osvrtom na pet najugroženijih država prema ukupnom broju i različitim posledicama. U cilju efikasnije zaštite i reagovanja u vanrednim situacijama izazvanim štetnim dejstvom vulkanskih erupcija, potrebno je između ostalog sveobuhvatno istražiti navedeni prirodni fenomen, tako da će predmet ovog rada biti forma, posledice, vremenski i geoprostorni raspored ispoljavanja vulkanskih erupcija. Pri tome, važno je da geoprostorna i vremenska analiza vulkanskih erupcija daju značenje, sadržaj i vrednost sveobuhvatnoj težnji za bolje razumevanje prirodnih opasnosti i njihovih uticaja, kako bi se stanovništvo pravovremeno zaštitilo od njih.