The choice of decision-making criterion in circumstances of risk

Abstract

Normative decision theory has developed a large number of decision-making criteria that may be used in the decision-making process in circumstances of risk. How to choose the adequate one for the given problem situation? The choice of an adequate decision making criterion requires the knowledge of criteria, their features, and the possibility of their utilization in different situations. In this study, a criteria analysis is also suggested, from the aspect of consistency with the aim to be achieved and with the features of the decision problem, from the aspect of ability to achieve rationality and from the point of view of the acceptability of consequences the change of the criterion will produce. The requirements set upon the decision-maker by the normative theory in the aspect of respecting axioms for rational choice and the maximization principle are also presented. The criteria analysis requires the usage of the results of the descriptive decision theory research as well, which, due to the bounded rationality of the decision-maker, questions the abilities of the criterion to keep to the axioms of rationality and provide maximization.

Normativna teorija odlučivanja razvila je veliki broj kriterijuma koji se mogu koristiti u procesu odlučivanja u uslovima rizika. Kako među njima odabrati odgovarajući kriterijum za odlučivanje u datoj problemskoj situaciji? Izbor odgovarajućeg kriterijuma zahtevaće poznavanje kriterijuma za odlučivanje, njihovih karakteristika i mogućnosti primene u različitim situacijama odlučivanja. U radu se, takođe, predlaže i analiza kriterijuma s aspekta konzistentnosti sa ciljem koji se želi postići i karakteristikama problemske situacije, s aspekta mogućnosti postizanja racionalnosti, kao i sa stanovišta prihvatljivosti posledica koje će primena kriterijuma izazvati. Izloženi su i zahtevi koje normativna teorija postavlja donosiocu odluka u vezi sa poštovanjem aksioma racionalnog izbora i principa maksimizacije. Analiza kriterijuma zahtevaće korišćenje i rezultata istraživanja deskriptivne teorije odlučivanja, koja, usled ograničene racionalnosti donosioca odluke, dovodi u pitanje mogućnosti kriterijuma da se do kraja ispoštuju aksiomi racionalnosti i obezbedi maksimizacija.