The Index of industrial production: The first among the series in Serbian economic statistics

Abstract

The paper presents the methodology, data collection, dissemination and uses of the Index of industrial production for Serbia. The Index of industrial production for the entire industry is used in the analysis of industrial and labor productivity, but also as the indicator of current economic trends and as the indicator of long-term trend in Serbian economy. There are some possibilities of using the Index of industrial production as the cyclical coincident indicator in cyclical analysis, which is demonstrated in the paper. The changes in methodology of compilation of the Index over the past few years, and their impact on the coverage of the Index will be discussed. The Index of industrial production for the entire industry cannot be treated separately from indices of industrial production at lower aggregation levels (groups, branches and sections of industry), considering that the procedure for its calculation is based on those indices; therefore, those indices, methodology of their compilation and uses of indices will also be discussed in the paper.

U radu je predstavljena metodologija, način prikupljanja podataka, diseminacija i primena indeksa industrijske proizvodnje za Srbiju. Indeks industrijske proizvodnje za industriju u celini koristi se u analizi industrijske proizvodnje i produktivnosti rada u industriji, takođe i kao indikator tekućih ekonomskih trendova u privredi i kao indikator dugoročnog trenda u ekonomiji Srbije. Postoje mogućnosti za korišćenje indeksa u cikličnoj analizi, kao cikličnog koincidirajućeg indikatora, što je pokazano u radu. Biće reči i o promenama u metodologiji za obračun indeksa tokom prethodnih godina koje su za posledicu imale promene u obuhvatu indeksa. Indeks industrijske proizvodnje za industriju u celini ne može se posmatrati odvojeno od indeksa industrijske proizvodnje na nižim nivoima agregacije (za grupe, grane i oblasti industrije), s obzirom na to da je postupak izračunavanja indeksa zasnovan na ovim indeksima, pa će u radu biti reči i o indeksima industrijske proizvodnje na nižim nivoima agregacije, metodologiji njihovog obračuna i primeni.