Procena rizika kod transporta opasnih materija

Abstract

Hemijske katastrofe su obično povezane sa sistemima snabdevanja, transporta ili skladištenja opasnih materija i mogu izazvati jako zagađenje atmosfere. Upravljanje rizikom od potencijalnih katastrofa pri transportu opasnih materija predstavlja proces analize koji bi sprečio ugrožavanje velikog broja ljudi, imovine, životne sredine i prirodnih resursa. U vezi s tim neophodno je pravovremeno predvideti način širenja zagađujućih materija, njihove koncentracije, brzinu i smer širenja s cilјem preciznog vremenskog upozorenja ili eventualne evakuacije stanovništva. Ovaj rad analizira i upoređuje teoriju i praktičnu primenu izabranog Gausovog modela disperzije i softverskog modela ALOHA za slučaj oslobađanja opasnih materija usled incidenta pri transportu. Rezultati dobijeni primenom modela su važni za zaklјučke procene, prepoznavanja, analize i upravlјanje rizikom.

Chemical disasters are usually associated with the supply, transport or storage of hazardous substances and can cause severe atmospheric pollution. Managing the risk of potential disasters in the transport of dangerous goods is an analysis process that would prevent the threat of a large number of people, property, the environment and natural resources. In this regard, it is necessary to predict in a timely manner the way in which pollutants are disseminated, their concentration, speed and direction of spreading with the aim of precise weather warnings or possible evacuation of the population. This paper analyzes and compares the theory and application of the selected Gaussian model of dispersion and the software model ALOHA in the case of releasing hazardous materials due to transport incidents. The results obtained by applying the model are important for the conclusions of assessment, recognition, analysis and risk management.