The possibilities and limitations of general risk assessment of domestic violence by application of the matrices of probability and consequences

Abstract

By comparing the risk theory and the relevant standard with the Law on the Prevention of Domestic Violence (Law), one comes to the conclusion that risk management, especially in the domain of assessment, is based on qualitative methods of analysis. Thus, the potential for the application of semi-quantitative and quantitative risk analysis methods in the application of the said regulation is not used. As it is too ambitious to problematize the purpose and potential for the implementation of both types of risk analysis methods envisioned by the Law in one paper, this study deals with possibilities and limitations of the conversion of qualitative into quantitative data in the function of overall risk assessment in the doctrine and the practice of preventing domestic violence in the Republic of Serbia. More precisely, the paper has identified the purpose, possibilities, limitations and the proposal of their overcoming, in the implication of the matrices of probability and consequences, as a semi-quantitative method of analyzing the general risk in the doctrine and practice of preventing domestic violence in the mentioned spatial framework. This contributes to the creation of conditions that support effective implementation of the Law, which are not foreseen as a potential for improving the doctrine and practice of preventing domestic violence by using matrices of probability and consequences, while recognizing the identified limitations. The verification of this research creates a starting point for the development of standards for the quantification of the general risk of domestic violence, which creates the conditions for the mentioned assessments to be more precise in terms of precision, ranking and risk classification, as well as the reduction of discretionary decision-making. This would create conditions for defming good practice in this area, which could be taken to the necessary extent in other countries.

Pored nespornog kvaliteta Zakona o sprečavanju nasilja u porodici (Zakon), kojim je predviđena obaveza procenjivanja rizika u konkretnom (prijavljenom) slučaju nasilja u porodici u Republici Srbiji, njime nije predviđeno procenjivanje opšteg rizika od navedene vrste nasilja. Odsustvo Zakonom predviđene obaveznosti procene opšteg rizika od nasilja u porodici ima za posledicu podoptimalne uslove donošenja valjanijih odluka (time i planova) za suprotstavljanje navedenom bezbednosnom problemu. S tim u vezi, ovim radom se rešavanje ili ublažavanje problema odsustva procene opšteg rizika od nasilja u porodici razmatra analogijom te oblasti sa oblašću koja je po tom pitanju uređenija, kakvom se može smatrati bezbednost i otpornost društva - procena rizika, sadržana u istoimenom standardu (Standard). Polazeći od toga, radom su proverene mogućnosti i ograničenja procenjivanja (identifikovanjem, analiziranjem i vrednovanjem) opšteg rizika od nasilja u porodici primenom Standarda, radi njegovog tretiranja. Na osnovu realizovanog istraživanja zaključeno je da: 1) postoji potreba i mogućnost propisivanja obaveze procenjivanja opšteg rizika od nasilja u porodici; 2) ona treba da bude realizovana metodama polukvantitativne i kvantitativne analize, konkretno matrica verovatnoća i posledica (radi utvrđivanja prihvatljivosti ili neprihvatljivosti svih opštih rizika koji su u nadležnosti policije, među kojima i od nasilja u porodici), odnosno verovatnoće (radi utvrđivanja opšteg rizika od nasilja u porodici po pojedinim teritorijalnim organizacionim jedinicama policije, kako bi mogle međusobno da se porede); 3) postojeći Standard ne odgovara sasvim potrebama procene opšteg rizika od nasilja u porodici; 4) zbog čega postoji potreba za razvijanjem posebnog standarda za određivanje veličine opšteg rizika od porodičnog nasilja.