Analysis of spatial and temporal distribution of drought as natural disaster

Abstract

As climatological disasters, droughts increasingly jeopardize the safety of people and their property, creating serious environmental problems including the negative impact on the environment. For these and other reasons, the droughts as a natural disaster are beginning to attract more attention of researchers all over the world who want to better comprehend them in the phenomenological and quantitative terms. Bearing in mind that this is a mass phenomenon, which consists of multiple units, the most preferred scientific method for drawing conclusions about the drought is the statistical method. Guided by this fact, the subject of research is a descriptive statistical analysis of geospatial and temporal distribution of drought in the world during the period 1900-2013. In addition, a statistical study was conducted in such a way that the first step taken in the form of raw data Excel file from the international database on disasters (CRED) in Brussels and then analyzed in the SPSS statistical analysis of data. Within geospatial analysis, the distribution of the total number and consequences of drought across continents and countries was considered, with special emphasis on the five most vulnerable countries to the total number and variety of consequences. On the same principle, within the temporal analysis, the distribution of the total number and consequences of drought on annual, monthly and daily basis was examined, with special reference to the five most important in the number of different effects (killed, injured, affected, homeless). In this sense, for effective and efficient protection and emergency response due to the deleterious effect of drought, it is inter alia stated comprehensively investigate natural phenomena using statistical method and the method of thematic mapping with the objective descriptions consequence, geospatial and timing of the manifestation of drought.

Suše kao klimatske katastrofe svakim danom sve više ugrožavaju bezbednost ljudi i njihovu imovinu, stvarajući ozbiljne ekološke probleme među kojima je i negativan uticaj na životnu sredinu. Predmet rada je deskriptivna statistička analiza geoprostorne i vremenske distribucije suša u svetu tokom perioda 1900-2013. godina. Pri tome, samo statističko istraživanje je sprovedeno na taj način što su u prvom koraku preuzeti neobrađeni podaci u vidu Excel fajla iz međunarodne baze podataka o katastrofama (CRED) u Briselu, a zatim su analizirani u programu za statističku obradu podataka SPSS. U okviru geoprostorne analize razmatrana je distribucija ukupnog broja i posledica suša po kontinentima i državama, sa posebnim osvrtom na pet najugroženijih država prema ukupnom broju i različitim posledicama. Po istom principu, u okviru vremenske analize razmatrana je distribucija ukupnog broja i posledica suša na godišnjem, mesečnom i dnevnom nivou, sa posebnim osvrtom na pet najznačajnijih godina prema broju različitih posledica (poginuli, povređeni, pogođeni, bez doma). U tom smislu, radi efektivnije i efikasnije zaštite i reagovanja u vanrednim situacijama izazvanim štetnim dejstvom suša, potrebno je, između ostalog, sveobuhvatno istražiti navedeni prirodni fenomen, koristeći statistički metod i metod tematske kartografije sa ciljem deskripcije posledica, geoprostornog i vremenskog rasporeda ispoljavanja suša.