Some possibilities of predicting the selection of the line of study

Abstract

In accordance with the omnipresent process of computerization of society, along with a permanent global economic crisis, there is a need for saving by avoiding wrong choices for study. It is the interest of both the students and high education institutions that high education be as successful as possible, hence the need for adequate selection of the line of study is almost inevitable. The aim of the paper is to show how modern mathematical - informational media can construct a model of prediction in the selection of the line of study. In order to achieve our aim we conducted a research in the Criminal Police Academy in Belgrade. By using classic regression analysis, they developed a model which instructs students how to choose one of three lines of study after the first year, based on individual achievements in subjects in the first year and overall average period of study. The results are presented in the paper.

U skladu s opšteprisutnim procesom informatizacije društva, uz permanentnu svetsku ekonomsku krizu, nameće se potreba uštede izbegavanjem izbora pogrešnog usmerenja studiranja. Interes je kako studenata, tako i visokoškolskih institucija da visokoškolsko obrazovanje bude što uspešnije, pa se stoga gotovo nužno javlja potreba za adekvatnim izborom smera studija. Cilj rada je da ukaže na mogućnost korišćenja savremenih mate- matičko-informatičkih sredstava kojima se realizuje jedan model predikcije u izboru smera studiranja. Radi realizacije ovog cilja sprovedeno je istraživanje na Kriminalističko-policijskoj akademiji u Beogradu na kojoj je primenom klasične regresione analize razvijen model koji daje studentima uputstva za izbor jednog od tri postojeća smera studiranja nakon prve godine studiranja, a na osnovu pojedinačnog uspeha postignutog iz predmeta na prvoj godini studija i ukupnog proseka studiranja. Rezultati tog istraživanja prezentovani su u ovom radu.