Situational pistol shooting efficiency prediction on the basis of motor abilities of the students of the academy of criminalistic and police studies, by modelling of motoric abilities using methods of partialisation

Abstract

This paper aims to evaluate the connection of successfulness, as a value of efficiency of use of fire-arms under specific police situations, and the motor abilities of the students of Academy of Criminalistic and Police Studies (ACPS) from Belgrade. Testing sample included 77 students of the II year of ACPS, age 19 to 23. The basic morphological characteristics of the sample were: BH=1.807±0.061 m; BM=79.07±7.21 kg. The sample of predicting variables consisted of a set of 30 motorical variables, while the criterion variable was represented by the efficiency in use of fire-arms at the pistol shooting range where the lifting of targets is directed (RB1effic%). Regarding the statistic methods, we have used the method of descriptive statistics and the method of multiple regression analysis. The results of regression analysis show that 31.50% of criterion space can be statistically significant explained (Fratio = 2.942; p = 0.001) by the model of chosen predicting variable (adj R2 = 31.50%), i.e. the efficiency of fire-arms use at the situational pistol obstacle shooting test when the lifting of targets is directed (RB1effic%). In other words, the results show that 31.50% of efficiency of shooting out of hand fire-arms depends, in this case, on the motor abilities represented by physical characteristics of contractile abilities of tested muscle groups, velocity and repetitive strength. The results of multiple regression analysis for variables which by regression model, method of back­wards elimination, defined the model of mathematical regression equation, we were calculate function of equation of mathematical model of predicting efficiency of fire­arms use at the situational pistol polygon as: RB1effic% = -81.3693 - 0.000714704 *DIZTRU30rel + 0.0700532 * DALJMrel - 23.2515 *MrVuFrel30% + 2.08396 *MrVuRFDrel100% + 1002.98 * HANDLFrel30% - 291.461 *HANDLFrel100% + 1.53737 *HANDLRFDrel30% - 2.72891 *HANDLRFDrel50% + 1.70878 *HANDLRFDrel100% + 562.609 *HANDDFrel30% - 154.408 *HANDDFrel100% - 0.957475 *HANDDRFDrel30% + 1.73011 * HANDDRFDrel50% + 10.4826 *NOGEFrel50% + 0.424148 *NO­GERFDrel30% - 0.569521 *NOGERFDrel50% - 2.24769 *NOGERFDrel100%, with standard estimation error of ± 17.11% of fire-arms using efficiency. On the basis of all the above said it can be concluded that this kind of specific police tasks requires the fitness level which can be achieved using training methods that would comprise the directed work on development of particular physical characteristics and combined methods to develop several characteristics in an integral manner.

Savremena upotreba tehničkih sredstava nije eliminisala ljudski faktor u rešavanju i izvršavanju najsloženijih poslova i zadataka iz prostora delovanja Ministarstva unutrašnjih poslova (MUP). Ljudski faktor, kao dominanta profesije, uslovljava potrebu za visokim nivoom motoričke (fizičke) osposobljenosti pojedinca kao jednim od preduslova za uspešno obavljanje profesionalnih policijskih zadataka. Cilj ovog istraživanja je da se proceni povezanost uspešnosti gađanja, kao mere efikasnosti upotrebe ručnog vatrenog oružja u specifičnim policijskim situacijama (kriterijum), sa relativnim, tj. parcijalizovanim karakteristikama koje definišu prostor motoričkih sposobnosti (prediktori) na populacije studenata KPA. Uzorak ispitanika se sastojao od 77 studenata II godine KPA u Beogradu (uzrast od 19 do 23 godine; TV=1.807±0.061 m; TM=79.07±7.21 kg). Uzorak prediktorskih varijabli sačinjavao je set od 30 motoričkih, dok je kriterijumsku varijablu predstavljala efikasnost upotrebe vatrenog oružja na pištoljskom poligonu kada je podizanje meta dirigovano (RB1effic%). Od statističkih metoda primenjene su metode deskriptivne statistike i metoda multiple regresione analize. Rezultati su pokazali da je izdvojen sklop od 18 prediktivnih varijabli koje, statistički.